With three wins and six top-10 performances during the 2020-21 PGA Tour season, Patrick Cantlay enters the 2021 Tour Championship ranked first in the FedEx Cup standings. That means he’ll begin the 2021 Tour Championship at 10-under par, while Tony Finau, who secured his second career victory two weeks ago at the Northern Trust, will begin this week’s event two-shots off the lead. This is the third year of the Tour Championship’s staggered start format and the action gets underway on Thursday from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Cantlay and Jon Rahm, the No. 1 ranked player in the world, as the 4-1 co-favorites in the 2021 Tour Championship odds. They’re followed closely by Bryson DeChambeau (5-1) and Finau (15-2) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2021 Tour Championship picks, be sure to see the latest golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it’s up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure’s best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.
In addition, McClure’s model was all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing.
This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2021 Tour Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 Tour Championship leaderboard.
The model’s top 2021 Tour Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Tour Championship 2021: DeChambeau, an eight-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, barely cracks the top five. DeChambeau’s coming off a disappointing playoff defeat to Cantlay at the BMW Championship.
The 27-year-old continues to crush the ball off the tee, averaging 323 yards per drive this season, which ranks first on tour. DeChambeau’s length off the tee also has him ranked in the top five in birdie average (4.49), scoring average (69.730) and strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.422).
However, DeChambeau is hitting just 54.21 percent of fairways off the tee this season, which ranks 182nd on tour. His inability to find the fairway off the tee has resulted in DeChambeau finishing T-31 or worse in three of his last five starts. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Tour Championship 2021 field.
Another surprise: Cameron Smith, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Smith doesn’t explode off the tee quite as much as some of the other top contenders, but he enters this week’s event as one of the best putters on tour. In fact, Smith ranks first in putting average (1.687), overall putting average (1.539) and one-putt percentage (45.09). Smith also ranks inside the top-25 in strokes gained: around-the-green (.277) and scoring average (69.932). Those will all be valuable skills at East Lake, making Smith a great choice for 2021 Tour Championship bets.
How to make 2021 Tour Championship picks
The model is targeting four other golfers with 2021 Tour Championship odds of 25-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who will win the Tour Championship 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Tour Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.
2021 Tour Championship odds
Patrick Cantlay 4-1
Jon Rahm 4-1
Bryson DeChambeau 5-1
Tony Finau 15-2
Justin Thomas 16-1
Dustin Johnson 25-1
Cameron Smith 25-1
Jordan Spieth 25-1
Rory McIlroy 25-1
Abraham Ancer 28-1
Xander Schauffele 28-1
Harris English 33-1
Sam Burns 33-1
Collin Morikawa 35-1
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Sungjae Im 40-1
Viktor Hovland 40-1
Brooks Koepka 50-1
Scottie Scheffler 80-1
Jason Kokrak 80-1
Hideki Matsuyama 100-1
Kevin Na 125-1
Corey Conners 125-1
Daniel Berger 125-1
Patrick Reed 150-1
Sergio Garcia 150-1
Joaquin Niemann 150-1
Erik Van Rooyen 175-1
Billy Horschel 250-1
Stewart Cink 250-1